How this is calculated. Product-driven new ARR = new ARR × the product attribution rate. Product-driven churn = ARR × churn rate × the product churn rate. Exposure sizes what a best-in-class hit rate would unlock rather than what a perfect one would, because no discovery process makes failure disappear.
Retained revenue scales with the share of your misses that get fixed — a 10-point gain against a 75% miss rate removes 13% of product-driven churn. Additional new ARR scales with the proportional increase in productive capacity, then takes the diminishing-returns discount. Pulled-forward revenue is product-driven ARR × quarters earlier ÷ 4, counted once.
Three-year cumulative assumes ARR gains stack annually and retained revenue persists; pulled-forward revenue is counted once.
Where this model is generous. Recovered build capacity and additional new ARR are two lenses on the same underlying shift — capacity moving from work that misses to work that lands — so treating them as fully additive overstates the combined figure. The conservative floor exists for exactly that reason: it counts only recovered build capacity and retained revenue, which do not overlap and are both traceable to systems you already own. If you believe one number on this page, believe that one.